Source: American Association of Public Opinion Research
Source: Pew Research Center
Source: Pew Research Center
Source: Webster & Abramowitz 2017
*Polls can also go wrong if they have bad question wording, a fourth type of survey error called "measurement error"
Source: Pew Research Center
Race, age, gender, and region are most common
Can use weighting (raking) modeling (MRP), w various tradeoffs
mu_b[:,T] = cholesky_ss_cov_mu_b_T * raw_mu_b_T + mu_b_prior; for (i in 1:(T-1)) mu_b[:, T - i] = cholesky_ss_cov_mu_b_walk * raw_mu_b[:, T - i] + mu_b[:, T + 1 - i];national_mu_b_average = transpose(mu_b) * state_weights;mu_c = raw_mu_c * sigma_c;mu_m = raw_mu_m * sigma_m;mu_pop = raw_mu_pop * sigma_pop;e_bias[1] = raw_e_bias[1] * sigma_e_bias;sigma_rho = sqrt(1-square(rho_e_bias)) * sigma_e_bias;for (t in 2:T) e_bias[t] = mu_e_bias + rho_e_bias * (e_bias[t - 1] - mu_e_bias) + raw_e_bias[t] * sigma_rho;//*** fill pi_democratfor (i in 1:N_state_polls){ logit_pi_democrat_state[i] = mu_b[state[i], day_state[i]] + mu_c[poll_state[i]] + mu_m[poll_mode_state[i]] + mu_pop[poll_pop_state[i]] + unadjusted_state[i] * e_bias[day_state[i]] + raw_measure_noise_state[i] * sigma_measure_noise_state + polling_bias[state[i]];}
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